Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

松花江上游地区汞污染的化学生态效应   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王宁  朱颜明  朴明玉  孟丹 《地理科学》2005,25(6):737-741

采样分析了吉林省东部松花江上游金矿开采区及其附近水、土壤、动植物及河流沉积物样品中汞的含量，发现河流沉积物中汞的污染相当严重；受其影响当地的植物和两栖类动物——中国林蛙体内总汞和甲基汞含量也明显高于对照组。实验表明，林蛙内脏对汞的富集能力大于肌肉；秋季对汞的富集大于春季；河流沉积物中甲基汞的含量与林蛙体内甲基汞的含量有较好的正相关。汞污染的来源与区域内个体金矿的滥采滥排有直接关系，表明人类活动所产生的有毒重金属在地表过程中出现了化学生态效应。  相似文献   

Metrics to assess how longitudinal channel network connectivity and in‐stream Atlantic salmon habitats are impacted by hydropower regulation          下载免费PDF全文

Willem B. Buddendorf  Iain A. Malcolm  Josie Geris  Mark E. Wilkinson  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2017,31(12):2132-2142

Habitat fragmentation in channel networks and riverine ecosystems is increasing globally due to the construction of barriers and river regulation. The resulting divergence from the natural state poses a threat to ecosystem integrity. Consequently, a trade‐off is required between the conservation of biodiversity in channel networks and socio‐economic factors including power generation, potable water supplies, fisheries, and tourism. Many of Scotland's rivers are regulated for hydropower generation but also support populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) that have high economic and conservation value. This paper investigates the use of connectivity metrics and weightings to assess the impact of river barriers (impoundments) associated with hydropower regulation on natural longitudinal channel connectivity for Atlantic salmon. We applied 2 different weighting approaches in the connectivity models that accounted for spatial variability in habitat quality for spawning and fry production and contrasted these models with a more traditional approach using wetted area. Assessments of habitat loss using the habitat quality weighted models contrasted with those using the less biologically relevant wetted area. This highlights the importance of including relevant ecological and hydrogeomorphic information in assessing regulation impacts on natural channel connectivity. Specifically, we highlight scenarios where losing a smaller area of productive habitat can have a larger impact on Atlantic salmon than losing a greater area of less suitable habitat. It is recommended that future channel connectivity assessments should attempt to include biologically relevant weightings, rather than relying on simpler metrics like wetted area which can produce misleading assessments of barrier impacts.  相似文献   

Assessment of flow paths and confluences for saltwater intrusion in a deltaic river network          下载免费PDF全文

Baoshan Cui  Xiaojing Shao  Zhiming Zhang 《水文研究》2015,29(20):4549-4558

Saltwater intrusion is a serious issue in estuarine deltas all over the world due to rapid urban sprawl and water shortage. Therefore, detecting the major flow paths or locations at risk of saltwater intrusion in estuarine ecosystems is important for mitigating saltwater intrusion. In this paper, we introduce a centrality index, the betweenness centrality (BC), to address this problem. Using the BC as the weighted attribute of the river network, we identify the critical confluences for saltwater intrusion and detect the preferential flow paths for saltwater intrusion through the least‐cost‐path algorithm from a graph theory approach. Moreover, we analyse the responses of the BC values of confluences calculated in the river network to salinity. Our results show that the major flow paths and critical confluences for saltwater intrusion in a deltaic river network can be represented by the least cost paths and the BC values of confluences, respectively. In addition, a significant positive correlation between the BC values of confluences and salinity is determined in the Pearl River Delta. Changes in the salinity can produce significant variation in the BC values of confluences. Therefore, freshwater can be diverted into these major flow paths and critical confluences to improve river network management under saltwater intrusion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

京津唐地区HFMD时空变异分析与影响因子探测     

张湘雪  王丽  尹礼唱  徐成东  李霞  刘杨 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(3):398-406

手足口病（HFMD）是一种多发于儿童的常见传染病。近年来,中国HFMD发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也日益受到社会广泛关注。虽已有不少相关研究,但对于探测其时空异质性及量化潜在影响因子解释力的研究仍然较少。本文采用地理探测器及贝叶斯时空层次模型,对2009-2013年京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性进行分析,并量化各影响因子及其两两交互作用对HFMD发病率的解释力。结果表明：① HFMD的相对风险存在时间异质性,其发病风险在春夏季（5-7月）达到峰值,而冬季（12-次年2月）发病风险最低;② HFMD的相对风险存在空间异质性,在经济发达的地区HFMD发病率较高;③ 影响HFMD发病率时间异质性的主要气象因子为平均温度、累积降水、相对湿度,解释力分别为0.38,0.27,0.13,且交互作用都大于独自影响的作用,如平均温度和相对湿度、平均温度和降水,平均温度和风速两两交互的解释力分别为0.43, 0.40, 0.42。通过研究京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性以及影响因子的量化状况,为本地区HFMD的预防和控制提供理论依据。  相似文献   

A long‐term study of stable isotopes as tracers of processes governing water flow and quality in a lowland river basin: the upper Thames,UK          下载免费PDF全文

W. George Darling  Michael J. Bowes 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2178-2195

A long‐term study of O, H and C stable isotopes has been undertaken on river waters across the 7000‐km² upper Thames lowland river basin in the southern UK. During the period, flow conditions ranged from drought to flood. A 10‐year monthly record (2003–2012) of the main River Thames showed a maximum variation of 3‰ (δ¹⁸O) and 20‰ (δ²H), although interannual average values varied little around a mean of –6.5‰ (δ¹⁸O) and –44‰ (δ²H). A δ²H/δ¹⁸O slope of 5.3 suggested a degree of evaporative enrichment, consistent with derivation from local rainfall with a weighted mean of –7.2‰ (δ¹⁸O) and –48‰ (δ²H) for the period. A tendency towards isotopic depletion of the river with increasing flow rate was noted, but at very high flows (>100 m³/s), a reversion to the mean was interpreted as the displacement of bank storage by rising groundwater levels (corroborated by measurements of specific electrical conductivity). A shorter quarterly study (October 2011–April 2013) of isotope variations in 15 tributaries with varying geology revealed different responses to evaporation, with a well‐correlated inverse relationship between Δ¹⁸O and baseflow index for most of the rivers. A comparison with aquifer waters in the basin showed that even at low flow, rivers rarely consist solely of isotopically unmodified groundwater. Long‐term monitoring (2003–2007) of carbon stable isotopes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Thames revealed a complex interplay between respiration, photosynthesis and evasion, but with a mean interannual δ¹³C‐DIC value of –14.8 ± 0.5‰, exchange with atmospheric carbon could be ruled out. Quarterly monitoring of the tributaries (October 2011–April 2013) indicated that in addition to the aforementioned factors, river flow variations and catchment characteristics were likely to affect δ¹³C‐DIC. Comparison with basin groundwaters of different alkalinity and δ¹³C‐DIC values showed that the origin of river baseflow is usually obscured. The findings show that long‐term monitoring of environmental tracers can help to improve the understanding of how lowland river catchments function. Copyright © NERC 2015. Hydrological Processes © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characterizing spatial and temporal variation in 18O and 2H content of New Zealand river water for better understanding of hydrologic processes     

Jing Yang  Bruce D. Dudley  Kelsey Montgomery  Will Hodgetts 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5474-5488

Time series of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) in rivers can be used to quantify groundwater contributions to streamflow, and timescales of catchment storage. However, these isotope hydrology techniques rely on distinct spatial or temporal patterns of δ²H and δ¹⁸O within the hydrologic cycle. In New Zealand, lack of understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of δ²H and δ¹⁸O of river water hinders development of regional and national-scale hydrological models. We measured δ²H and δ¹⁸O monthly, together with river flow rates at 58 locations across New Zealand over a two-year period. Results show: (a) general patterns of decreasing δ²H and δ¹⁸O with increasing latitude were altered by New Zealand's major mountain ranges; δ²H and δ¹⁸O were distinctly lower in rivers fed from higher elevation catchments, and in eastern rain-shadow areas of both islands; (b) river water δ²H and δ¹⁸O values were partly controlled by local catchment characteristics (catchment slope, PET, catchment elevation, and upstream lake area) that influence evaporation processes; (c) regional differences in evaporation caused the slope of the river water line (i.e., the relationship between δ²H and δ¹⁸O in river water) for the (warmer) North Island to be lower than that of the (cooler, mountain-dominated) South Island; (d) δ²H seasonal offsets (i.e., the difference between seasonal peak and mean values) for individual sites ranged from 0.50‰ to 5.07‰. Peak values of δ¹⁸O and δ²H were in late summer, but values peaked 1 month later at the South Island sites, likely due to greater snow-melt contributions to streamflow. Strong spatial differences in river water δ²H and δ¹⁸O caused by orographic rainfall effects and evaporation may inform studies of water mixing across landscapes. Generally distinct seasonal isotope cycles, despite the large catchment sizes of rivers studied, are encouraging for transit time analysis applications.  相似文献   

Water uptake of riparian plants in the lower Lhasa River Basin,South Tibetan Plateau using stable water isotopes     

Wenbo Rao  Xi Chen  Karina T. Meredith  Hongbing Tan  Man Gao  Jintao Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(16):3492-3505

Riparian plants can adapt their water uptake strategies based on climatic and hydrological conditions within a river basin. The response of cold-alpine riparian trees to changes in water availability is poorly understood. The Lhasa River is a representative cold-alpine river in South Tibet and an under-studied environment. Therefore, a 96 km section of the lower Lhasa River was selected for a study on the water-use patterns of riparian plants. Plant water, soil water, groundwater and river water were measured at three sites for δ¹⁸O and δ²H values during the warm-wet and cold-dry periods in 2018. Soil profiles differed in isotope values between seasons and with the distance along the river. During the cold-dry period, the upper parts of the soil profiles were significantly affected by evaporation. During the warm-wet period, the soil profile was influenced by precipitation infiltration in the upper reaches of the study area and by various water sources in the lower reaches. Calculations using the IsoSource model indicated that the mature salix and birch trees (Salix cheilophila Schneid. and Betula platyphylla Suk.) accessed water from multiple sources during the cold-dry period, whereas they sourced more than 70% of their requirement from the upper 60–80 cm of the soil profile during the warm-wet period. The model indicated that the immature rose willow tree (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb) accessed 66% of its water from the surface soil during the cold-dry period, but used the deeper layers during the warm-wet period. The plant type was not the dominant factor driving water uptake patterns in mature plants. Our findings can contribute to strategies for the sustainable development of cold-alpine riparian ecosystems. It is recommended that reducing plantation density and collocating plants with different rooting depths would be conducive to optimal plant growth in this environment.  相似文献   

Application of a confluence‐based sediment‐fingerprinting approach to a dynamic sedimentary catchment,New Zealand          下载免费PDF全文

S. S. Vale  I. C. Fuller  J. N. Procter  L. R. Basher  I. E. Smith 《水文研究》2016,30(5):812-829

Fine sediment is a dynamic component of the fluvial system, contributing to the physical form, chemistry and ecological health of a river. It is important to understand rates and patterns of sediment delivery, transport and deposition. Sediment fingerprinting is a means of directly determining sediment sources via their geochemical properties, but it faces challenges in discriminating sources within larger catchments. In this research, sediment fingerprinting was applied to major river confluences in the Manawatu catchment as a broad‐scale application to characterizing sub‐catchment sediment contributions for a sedimentary catchment dominated by agriculture. Stepwise discriminant function analysis and principal component analysis of bulk geochemical concentrations and geochemical indicators were used to investigate sub‐catchment geochemical signatures. Each confluence displayed a unique array of geochemical variables suited for discrimination. Geochemical variation in upstream sediment samples was likely a result of the varying geological source compositions. The Tiraumea sub‐catchment provided the dominant signature at the major confluence with the Upper Manawatu and Mangatainoka sub‐catchments. Subsequent downstream confluences are dominated by the upstream geochemical signatures from the main stem of Manawatu River. Variability in the downstream geochemical signature is likely due to incomplete mixing caused in part by channel configuration. Results from this exploratory investigation indicate that numerous geochemical elements have the ability to differentiate fine sediment sources using a broad‐scale confluence‐based approach and suggest there is enough geochemical variation throughout a large sedimentary catchment for a full sediment fingerprint model. Combining powerful statistical procedures with other geochemical analyses is critical to understanding the processes or spatial patterns responsible for sediment signature variation within this type of catchment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Water source dynamics of high Arctic river basins          下载免费PDF全文

Phillip J. Blaen  David M. Hannah  Lee E. Brown  Alexander M. Milner 《水文研究》2014,28(10):3521-3538

Arctic river basins are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. However, there is currently limited knowledge of the hydrological processes that govern flow dynamics in Arctic river basins. We address this research gap using natural hydrochemical and isotopic tracers to identify water sources that contributed to runoff in river basins spanning a gradient of glacierization (0–61%) in Svalbard during summer 2010 and 2011. Spatially distinct hydrological processes operating over diurnal, weekly and seasonal timescales were characterized by river hydrochemistry and isotopic composition. Two conceptual water sources (‘meltwater’ and ‘groundwater’) were identified and used as a basis for end‐member mixing analyses to assess seasonal and year‐to‐year variability in water source dynamics. In glacier‐fed rivers, meltwater dominated flows at all sites (typically >80%) with the highest contributions observed at the beginning of each study period in early July when snow cover was most extensive. Rivers in non‐glacierized basins were sourced initially from snowmelt but became increasingly dependent on groundwater inputs (up to 100% of total flow volume) by late summer. These hydrological changes were attributed to the depletion of snowpacks and enhanced soil water storage capacity as the active layer expanded throughout each melt season. These findings provide insight into the processes that underpin water source dynamics in Arctic river systems and potential future changes in Arctic hydrology that might be expected under a changing climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献